North Atlantic Oscillation

Observed data . Reanalysis . Satellite data . Model  results NAO

NAO signal

Climate prediction problem


Data Analysis

Climate variability

Climate predictability

Lorenz (1975)
  • Problems of the first kind: the initial value problem of predicting the evolution of the climate system given some estimate of its current state; it is generally subject to errors originating from poorly known initial conditions, predictive model imperfections, and by "chaos”.
  • Problems of the second kind: the boundary value problem of assessing a change in climate due to some "external" forcing.
The NAO forecasting is essentially probabilistic and seems to be a climate prediction problem of the second kind.

Statistical approach

  • stochastic models
  • linear models linking slowly varying variables such as SST, snow cover, sea-ice extent (predictor fields) to the NAO predictand fields (usually,  SLP, Z500), generally, phenomena orientated models (November signal)
  • analog technique











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