Prediction

North Atlantic Oscillation	Observed data . Reanalysis . Satellite data . Model results	NAO
NAO signal	Climate prediction problem
Data Analysis Climate variability Air-sea interaction Large scale Upwelling Sea ice Air-land interaction Snow Local responses Climate predictability Linear model Analog technique	Lorenz (1975) •Problems of the first kind: the initial value problem of predicting the evolution of the climate system given some estimate of its current state; it is generally subject to errors originating from poorly known initial conditions, predictive model imperfections, and by "chaos”. •Problems of the second kind: the boundary value problem of assessing a change in climate due to some "external" forcing. The NAO forecasting is essentially probabilistic and seems to be a climate prediction problem of the second kind. Statistical approach stochastic models linear models linking slowly varying variables such as SST, snow cover, sea-ice extent (predictor fields) to the NAO predictand fields (usually, SLP, Z500), generally, phenomena orientated models (November signal) analog technique	EOF CCA POP MICOM
	Roxana Bojariu Copyright © 2002-2008	NAO